Forex Trading: this year’s loser – the USD

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It is becoming increasingly easier to pick a winner in the Forex market – and when I mean easier I mean, short the US Dollar.

The US Dollar dropped to its lowest point in a year against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after broad gains stocks brought a return of risk appetite.  Trading volume was markedly higher as investors returned from their vacations and began to assess the happenings of recent weeks.

The Dollars fall was also sparked by the rise in commodity prices such as gold which traded above $1000 for the first time since February.  Concerns over the USD’s status as the reserve currency were also a factor as a report by the United Nations which called for a new World Reserve System diminished the demand for the Dollar.

 at 11:15PM GMT, the Us Dollar was trading down 1.14% to the Euro to 1.4494, down 1% to the Japanese Yen to 92.23, down 1% to the Sterling to 1.6494, up .07% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.0785, down .8% to the Australian Dollar to .8622, down .5% to the New Zealand Dollar to .6959 and down 1.4% to the Swiss Franc to 1.0463 

The US Dollar dropped to its lowest point in a year against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after broad gains stocks brought a return of risk appetite.  Trading volume was markedly higher as investors returned from their vacations and began to assess the happenings of recent weeks.

 

The Dollars fall was also sparked by the rise in commodity prices such as gold which traded above $1000 for the first time since February.  Concerns over the USD’s status as the reserve currency were also a factor as a report by the United Nations which called for a new World Reserve System diminished the demand for the Dollar.

 

At 11:15PM GMT, the Us Dollar was trading down 1.14% to the Euro to 1.4494, down 1% to the Japanese Yen to 92.23, down 1% to the Sterling to 1.6494, up .07% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.0785, down .8% to the Australian Dollar to .8622, down .5% to the New Zealand Dollar to .6959 and down 1.4% to the Swiss Franc to 1.0463

The Australian Dollar has been stellar in the past few months, and I have made no secret of my love for this currency. But, it is the US Dollar that has now caught my eye as the most lucrative trade, whichever currency it is paired up with, if you happen to be on the short side of things you have been doing quite well.  Even against the pathetic Sterling the Dollar has been losing and I do not foresee this changing anytime soon.

One reason for this is the new development out of the United Nations, which openly called for a “new World Reserve” currency system – a new world order of things if you will.  Now, keep in mind the UN has not been a fan of the US for some time now, despite the US paying most of its bills and being a staunch supporter of most of its social programs such as UNESCO and UNICEF.  The world hates the top dog and if it were not for the veto power the US holds, I know there would be much more open criticism and dare I say, sanctions, against the world’s largest economy. 

But the announcement from the UN comes on the heels of President Obama deciding that he will be the first sitting US president to chair the all powerful (I am being cynical here) Security Council.  In a gesture meant to help bridge the gap between the impression the world has on the “stuck-up” and “maverick” United States, the President wants to approach the world stage with an open hand and show that we can all work together.  Now, I will bet that this move has less to do with nuclear proliferation than it does the UN’s call yesterday – but I am not qualified to make such an accusation.

In the online Forex marketplace we have seen the Dollar start its collapse.  China, which had kept mum on its concerns over the Dollar for a few months, is also back into the picture.  Speculation is that their $2 Trillion Dollars in USD reserves is being liquidated quietly and relocated to gold – which would explain the sudden increase in the shiny commodity.  Aside from this, they are also becoming vocal once more, sending a top Communist party official to the media using words like “dismayed” to describe how they feel about the US’s free use of the Treasury printing presses to cover their bills. 

Cheng Siwei, a top leader in China told the UK’s Daily Telegraph that Beijing was being compelled to redesign its foreign currency reserve policy.  No doubt this is having a grave affect on the USD  and it is the reason why I believe that no matter what the data shows about a recovery, the USD is destined for a downward trend in the coming few months.  China does not do things half assed, and you can bet that this is not the last we will hear about discontent from the US’s largest lender.  The season is ripe for a controversy – its September, and historically it has not been a good month for the USD – my bet is that this will be one of the worst on record.  Sit back and short – you won’t be sorry you did.

 

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